Colon Polyps and Probability
Most colon polyps do not turn into cancer, but nearly all color cancers derive from colon polyps "gone bad".
From the Colon Cancer Foundation (which we'll assume is a reputable site for deriving statistics):
Probability 1:
"Adenomatous polyps or adenomas—These polyps can become cancerous, and they account for approximately 75% of all colon polyps."
P1 = .75
Probability 2:
"The larger a polyp grows, the more likely it is to become cancerous. Once a polyp reaches approximately one inch in size, the risk of cancer is in excess of 20%."
2.5cm = .98" (roughly one inch)
Therefore,
P2 = .2
Probability of two independent events:
P1|2 = P1 * P2 = .75 * .2
Probability that I have a adenoma that is cancerous: .15 or 15%
I'm really not liking the odds. The doctor said that he felt we'd caught it in time, but according to the sites I've read, it's not easy to visually determine if a polyp is an adenoma by visual observation; it really does require microscopic examination on the cellular level.
I have a follow up with the GI on the 22nd. I'm afraid gime is going to drag until then. I wonder if there are implications for being able to do an IVF cycle, with the exposure to high levels of estrogens and all?
From the Colon Cancer Foundation (which we'll assume is a reputable site for deriving statistics):
Probability 1:
"Adenomatous polyps or adenomas—These polyps can become cancerous, and they account for approximately 75% of all colon polyps."
P1 = .75
Probability 2:
"The larger a polyp grows, the more likely it is to become cancerous. Once a polyp reaches approximately one inch in size, the risk of cancer is in excess of 20%."
2.5cm = .98" (roughly one inch)
Therefore,
P2 = .2
Probability of two independent events:
P1|2 = P1 * P2 = .75 * .2
Probability that I have a adenoma that is cancerous: .15 or 15%
I'm really not liking the odds. The doctor said that he felt we'd caught it in time, but according to the sites I've read, it's not easy to visually determine if a polyp is an adenoma by visual observation; it really does require microscopic examination on the cellular level.
I have a follow up with the GI on the 22nd. I'm afraid gime is going to drag until then. I wonder if there are implications for being able to do an IVF cycle, with the exposure to high levels of estrogens and all?
Labels: Bowel Cancer, Colonoscopy, GI Problems
posted by linda at 7:12 PM
Comments on "Colon Polyps and Probability"
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Mad Hatter said ... (10:12 PM) :
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musicmakermomma said ... (1:02 AM) :
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Fran said ... (3:54 AM) :
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Adele said ... (8:51 AM) :
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musicmakermomma said ... (12:35 PM) :
post a commentOh, gosh, Linda...how awful to be worrying about this. I'm thinking of you and hoping beyond hope that your doctor is right and you caught it in time and that it is true that most polyps do not become cancerous...After all, if you turn that statistic around, there is an 85% chance it isn't malignant, right?
I was thinking of your GI situation the other day as someone was talking about how they had all these stomach issues and then they did this big cleanse through this book - The Amazing Liver and Gallbladder Flush - and they passed over 200 kidney stones! I thought I should mention it in case it is something you want to look into.
Take good care of you.
Love,
Maddy
Oh Linda, I'm sorry you are going through this. One day at a time.
Linda, I know it's very difficult but try and stay positive that it will be ok. if you are really worried call the doctor and see if they pathology can be sped up a bit. Love, Fran
Linda, I'm sorry. I can understand that it's worrying and scary. But they're still low odds (though, I can imagine that concentrating on this fact is about impossible). They're going to do microscopic evaluation before the 22nd? I hate how life seems to be a series of waiting periods between appointments:(
But I'm going to concentrate on the fact that they caught this when they did. Hugs to you.
Hey, just wanted to let you know I'm thinking of you - good luck with your appt tomorrow. Take care.